Market Sizing – Top Down

This post is part of a series on how to size the market. Here’s the first post in the market sizing series if you want to start at the beginning.

The Top Down Analysis is generally the second step I recommend taking when trying to size an opportunity.

Top Down is the art of taking your Total Available Market and:

1) Determining market segments

2) Applying an adoption rate to each segment.

3) If your market has competitors, applying a market share to each segment. However, being able to apply a market share to your projections means that you will need to do a competitive analysis and have a good feel for how the features and benefits of your product stack up. I will list resources for competitive analysis in another post.

Here are some relevant articles on each of these subjects:

Market Segmentation

Clay Christensen’s Milkshake Marketing

How to Define Your Target Market –

Market Segmentation by Jerry Thomas

Market Segmentation –

Adoption Rates

Technology Adoption Lifecycle